Tension Increases In Arab Gulf Region

AP Photo

Iran has issued threats against any neighboring countries that allow foreign aggressors to launch an attack against it. Hossein Salami, deputy head of the Republican Guard, told the Fars news agency Sunday that Iran would retaliate against any country from which a military strike emanated. U.S.allied Gulf Arab states in the Gulf Cooperation Council have assured Iran that they will not allow their countries to be used for that purpose..

Various opinions exist about Iran's nuclear readiness. Israel has pushed for a preemptive strike based on its intelligence gathering of Iran's nuclear capabilities and has increasing concerns because Iran is moving all of its nuclear facilities to underground bunkers, making it difficult to assess the level and depth of activity.

While the United States has said it will not rule out any options at this point,  Leon Paneta urged caution in the face of increasing volatility and reportedly has concerns that Israel might act without the support of its allies.

Ham on Wry believes that nations in the Gulf Region have much to lose if Iran attacks any other country with nuclear weapons, because retaliation would come immediately and affect more than just Iran. I have no insider information on which to base this, but common sense dictates that Arab states don't want all-out war. Their entire region is defined by oil, and their ability to produce and ship it would, at best, be compromised for many months under an attack scenario. Certainly, negotiations must be occurring behind the scenes. Citizen revolts occurred last year during "Arab Spring", and Syria has captured world attention with its leader's treatment of the people calling for greater freedom. The Middle East has much to lose if Iran acts as the aggressor in such turbulent times.

We have seen the devastation that occurred during an unnecessary war in Iraq. May that debacle remind us not to act in haste.